The Gaza Vote: Policy Impacts of Biden’s Approach on Gaza for the November Election in Five Key Battleground States
A new YouGov poll commissioned by AJP-Action shows one in five voters in five battleground states is less likely to vote for Joe Biden in November due to his handling of the war in Gaza. A permanent ceasefire, full humanitarian aid, and conditional military aid could secure a win in November—over 40 percent of Democrats and Independents in these states agree.
Note: A previous version of this report had an error in the “minimum policy change” table which has been corrected. The results are unaffected.
Summary & Results Preview
In partnership with independent researchers, Americans for Justice in Palestine – Action (AJP Action) commissioned a YouGov poll in five key battleground states assessing the impact of Biden’s Gaza policy on his reelection chances in November. In each state, the poll included a representative sample of 500 registered Democratic and Independent voters. The five battleground states polled were Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where Democrats won narrowly in 2020—or in the case of Minnesota, 2016.
In each of these states, the polls provide a closer look at voters’ perceptions of President Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza and whether a key margin of Democratic and Independent voters will be encouraged or dissuaded from voting for Biden based on his continued support for Israel’s war.
We found that across all five states, a critical margin of voters—roughly one in five—are less likely to vote for President Biden because of his handling of the war in Gaza. In addition, 40 percent or more of Democratic and Independent voters in each state say that imposing an immediate and lasting ceasefire, conditioning aid to Israel, and ensuring full entry of humanitarian aid would make them more likely to vote for Biden in November.
That number is even larger for individual policies. The results also show that voters are not as convinced by the general prospect of policy change on Gaza, but have much higher likelihood to vote for Biden provided he follows through on specific policy changes or combinations thereof. Below are the highest averages for policy changes offered:
Respondents had the following options: more likely, less likely, does not impact my vote. Full list of policy options included in the full report.
The margin of victory needed to win in each state is central to understanding these results. The 2020 general election was determined by as few as 15,000 to 155,000 votes across our polled states, and present approval ratings for President Biden show Trump leading in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by 5 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, while some polls show Biden ahead, the margin is only about 2 percent. In Wisconsin, the election is expected to be determined, like in 2016 and 2020, by less than 1 percent of the vote (roughly 20,000 votes). In Minnesota, the approval ratings look more like 2016 than 2020, when Clinton won the state by under 2 percent of the vote, or just 44,765 votes. Considering the tight race between Biden and Trump, our poll indicates that the President could lose in Arizona and Wisconsin among anti-war Democrats and Independents due to his handling of Israel’s war in Gaza. Polling shows President Biden also faces a critical margin of anti-war Gaza voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, although his margin is safest in Minnesota. Over 40 percent of Democratic and Independent voters in each of these states are more likely to vote for Biden in November if he both imposes a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and conditions aid to Israel.
While the majority of those polled said they would vote for Biden, 1 in 5 Democratic or Independent voters in each of these states said that they would not vote for President Biden in November if the election were held today. Ten percent or more in each state will vote third party or a write-in candidate.
Among non-Biden, non-Trump voters, a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and ending military aid are the three most popular choices for “minimum change” among non-Biden, non-Trump voters polled—with a sizable portion—over a third—in each state saying all of the listed policy changes are equally necessary. Moreover, in all but Pennsylvania, ending all military aid to Israel was more likely to be a minimum policy change to secure a vote for Biden compared to merely conditioning aid.
The polls also asked about uncommitted campaigns in each of these states. Our polling shows that support for the uncommitted protest effort represents a larger share of voters than showed up in the primary, which is significant considering low turnout rates for primaries compared to general elections. The state with the greatest polled support for this “uncommitted” campaign in the primaries was Pennsylvania, where 34.6 percent of respondents said they strongly support the campaign.
Similar to other polls, we also asked voters if they believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinian civilians and roughly 50 percent or more in each state said “yes.” Among those who believe Israel is committing genocide, 16-25 percent of Democratic and Independent voters in each state said they are not voting for Biden in November.
When asked about conditioning military aid to Israel, between 55 percent and 66 percent of Democratic and Independent voters reported that they somewhat or strongly support conditions on aid to Israel.
Finally, we asked Democratic and Independent voters in each state about their views on the student encampments, and over 50 percent of voters polled said they support the student encampments—indicating relatively strong sympathy for such Palestine solidarity protest efforts.
Across all measures, we find that key margins of voters, particularly in Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, say that serious changes regarding Biden’s support for Israel’s war could secure their votes in November. Even when taking into account the net proportion of voters that are less likely to vote for Biden because of the war (see table below), that number is between ~4 and 7 percent of Democrats and Independents in each state. This represents more than the gap in Biden’s approval ratings in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and more than double the present Biden approval margins in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
These Gaza voters, who may be dissuaded or persuaded by Biden’s continued support for Israel’s war, make up more than the 2020 margin of victory for each state except for Minnesota—where they make up more than the 2016 margin of victory. In an election as close as this one is projected to be, the Democratic Party cannot afford to risk losing these voters.
+ or – in parentheses indicates the difference from the opposite response, e.g. In Wisconsin, (-8.9) indicates 8.9% more voters somewhat or strongly approve of Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza (not to be conflated with their views of the war itself).
About the polls
The polls were conducted by YouGov and commissioned by Americans for Justice in Palestine – Action. YouGov surveyed 500 registered voters (Dems & Independents) in each state between May 2nd and May 10, drawing on its panel of nearly 2 million U.S. residents with a sophisticated sample-matching procedure to guarantee a representative statewide pool. Results are then weighted to ensure representativeness. At the 95 percent confidence interval, the margin of error in each state is between 4.9 percent and 5.35 percent (indicated by state in the results). YouGov is among the top four polling institutes rated by FiveThirtyEight for its reliability. See the full report and cross-tabs for detailed methodology.
Margin of error: The overall margins of error for the samples are: Arizona: +/- 5.17 percent, Michigan 4.9 percent, Minnesota 5.06 percent, Pennsylvania 5.35 percent, and Wisconsin 5.27 percent. This margin of error is calculated at the 95 percent confidence interval. The margins of error for sub-groups within the sample are greater (e.g. non-Biden voters). The survey was deployed specifically between the following dates in each state: Arizona, May 2-10; Michigan, May 2-9; Minnesota, May 2-10; Pennsylvania, May 1-8; Wisconsin, May 2-9.
